{"id":4222,"date":"2012-11-16T21:45:30","date_gmt":"2012-11-17T02:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/?p=4222"},"modified":"2012-11-16T21:45:30","modified_gmt":"2012-11-17T02:45:30","slug":"the-miami-herald-ecuador-president-looks-at-third-term-with-record-high-approval-ratings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/news\/the-miami-herald-ecuador-president-looks-at-third-term-with-record-high-approval-ratings\/","title":{"rendered":"The Miami Herald: Ecuador President Looks at Third Term With Record-High Approval Ratings"},"content":{"rendered":"

Posted on Tue, Nov. 13, 2012 on The Miami Herald<\/a><\/p>\n

Ecuador president looks at third term with record-high\u00a0approval ratings<\/p>\n

BY JIM WYSS
\njwyss@MiamiHerald.com<\/p>\n

JUAN CEVALLOS \/ AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa(2L) waves next to\u00a0Jorge Glas(L) vice-presidential candidate for next general\u00a0elections arrive at the National Electoral Council to register
\nhis candidancy for a third term on November 12, 2012.\u00a0Correa officially announced Saturday that he would run for\u00a0a third term in February elections — a contest in which he is\u00a0expected to be the runaway favorite.<\/p>\n

As Ecuador\u2019s President Rafael Correa biked\u00a0through the streets of the capital Monday to\u00a0register his candidacy for the Feb. 17\u00a0presidential race, he had reasons to be\u00a0relaxed. Six years into office, he has\u00a0record-high approval ratings, is facing a\u00a0splintered opposition and has a 33-point\u00a0lead over his nearest rival.<\/p>\n

To Correa and his supporters, the rosy\u00a0scenario is an endorsement of his\u00a0progressive social policies, focus on the\u00a0poor and infrastructure projects. To his foes,\u00a0however, the daunting lead is a reflection of\u00a0a skewed political system built on the\u00a0nation\u2019s oil wealth and at the expense of\u00a0potential rivals.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re making history and we\u2019re going to\u00a0take this citizens\u2019 revolution to victory again,\u201d Correa, 49, told supporters over the weekend\u00a0as he announced his intention to seek a third term.<\/p>\n

But like his ally, Venezuelan President Hugo Ch\u00e1vez in last month\u2019s presidential election,
\nCorrea has the deck stacked in his favor well before the votes are cast, said Guillermo
\nLasso, 56, who is shaping up to be Correa\u2019s main opponent.<\/p>\n

\u201cFraud doesn\u2019t necessarily mean manipulating the results on Election Day,\u201d said Lasso, a
\nbanker who is running on a center-left platform. \u201cFraud includes unfair rules that don\u2019t allow\u00a0for fair and free elections. This vote will be free but it won\u2019t be fair, because one boxer has\u00a0his feet tied, hands tied and has gauze in his mouth.\u201d<\/p>\n

While candidates aren\u2019t allowed to begin running spots until Jan. 4, Correa floods the
\nairwaves with ads, interrupts programming on a regular basis and spends hours every
\nSaturday on live TV touting his successes and attacking his rivals. And record-high oil.<\/p>\n

prices have allowed him to take credit for popular subsidies and public works programs that\u00a0have helped reduce poverty and close the income gap.<\/p>\n

According to the Mexican polling firm Mitofsky, Correa \u2014 a U.S.-trained economist and
\nformer university lecturer \u2014 is the most popular leader in the hemisphere, with approval
\nratings of 80 percent.<\/p>\n

A poll taken in October by Ecuador\u2019s Cedatos found Correa would have won with 56
\npercent of the valid votes if the election was held then, followed by Lasso with 23 percent. If\u00a0a candidate wins by more than 50 percent, or at least 40 percent of the vote with a 10-point\u00a0difference over his nearest rival, he can avoid a runoff.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt this point, Correa has a real chance of winning the race in the first round,\u201d said Cedatos\u00a0President Polibio Cordova.<\/p>\n

The president\u2019s popularity is even more notable because Ecuador has a habit of turning on\u00a0its leaders. Before Correa took office in 2007, the Andean nation had toppled three\u00a0presidents in eight years, including his immediate predecessor.<\/p>\n

But some say Correa\u2019s popularity is a mirage, created by undercutting potential rivals.<\/p>\n

Alvaro Noboa, 60, is Ecuador\u2019s wealthiest man and is running for the presidency for the fifth\u00a0time. In the 2006 race, he won the first-round of the election only to lose to Correa in the\u00a0runoff. As he was considering entering this year\u2019s race, he was hit with a $98 million dollar\u00a0tax bill dating back from 2005.<\/p>\n

Speaking from New York recently, Noboa said Correa is using Ecuador\u2019s tax authority to
\nsideline him.<\/p>\n

\u201cCorrea doesn\u2019t want to face real opposition,\u201d Noboa said. \u201cIt\u2019s like something out of North\u00a0Korea, Syria or Cuba \u2014 he\u2019s using all means available to keep people from participating in\u00a0the election.\u201d<\/p>\n

The national tax authority, or SRI, did not respond to multiple requests for information.<\/p>\n

According to Cedatos\u2019 October poll, Noboa would only garner about 2 percent of the vote.
\nBut Noboa insists his numbers are higher, and that any weakness in his campaign is the
\ndirect result of Correa\u2019s attacks in the state-run media.<\/p>\n

\u201cCorrea controls the press, he controls the [National Election Council], and he has great
\ninfluence over the court,\u201d Noboa said. \u201cAnyone who opposes him ends up in a very difficult\u00a0situation.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the field is tilted in Correa\u2019s favor, the opposition has also failed to present a
\ncompelling alternative, said Simon Pachano, a political science professor at Ecuador\u2019s
\nLatin American Faculty for Social Sciences, or FLACSO.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe still don\u2019t have an opposition with credible proposals,\u201d Pachano said. \u201cAnd people are\u00a0likely to think \u2018Why should I risk it with some other candidate if the president we have has\u00a0done a relatively good job \u2014 at least compared to previous administrations.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

If Correa doesn\u2019t win in the first round, however, and the opposition rallies behind a single\u00a0candidate in the runoff, \u201cthen that could be difficult for him,\u201d Pachano said.<\/p>\n

While Correa\u2019s candidacy is strong, it does have its weak spots. Correa\u2019s combative
\nattitude with the United States and multinational firms have hurt foreign investment and
\nthreaten the country\u2019s U.S. trade benefits. In addition, rising crime, corruption charges and\u00a0his penchant for suing and fining the press, have opened him up to attacks.<\/p>\n

But Correa has been fighting back, accusing the opposition of being beholden to big
\nbusiness and willing to dismantle the social safety nets his administration has created.<\/p>\n

Noboa admits that some might be blinded by his wealth, but insists he\u2019s a center-left
\ncandidate who wants to harness the power of the private sector to help the poor.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe true enemies of the poor are totalitarian Latin-American leaders and corrupt
\npoliticians,\u201d he said, \u201cnot businessmen.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of Lasso\u2019s flagship proposals was to increase the monthly cash subsidy paid to the
\nelderly and poor from $35 to $50.<\/p>\n

Correa seized the idea from him and has a bill before congress that would finance the
\nincrease by taxing banking profits.<\/p>\n

Lasso said the move was a direct attack on his candidacy and the banking industry, where
\nhe still holds sway. It\u2019s also another sign the government is willing to go to any length to win\u00a0the election, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis law is an act of revenge,\u201d he said. \u201cBut thank God I wasn\u2019t a baker or he would have
\nconfiscated the profits of all bakers\u2026 It isn\u2019t a serious way to participate in politics.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Posted on Tue, Nov. 13, 2012 on The Miami Herald Ecuador president looks at third term with record-high\u00a0approval ratings BY JIM WYSS jwyss@MiamiHerald.com JUAN CEVALLOS \/ AFP\/Getty Images Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa(2L) waves next to\u00a0Jorge Glas(L) vice-presidential candidate for next general\u00a0elections arrive at the National Electoral Council to register his candidancy for a third term on November 12, 2012.\u00a0Correa officially announced Saturday that he would run for\u00a0a third term in February elections — a contest in which he is\u00a0expected to be the runaway favorite. As Ecuador\u2019s President Rafael Correa biked\u00a0through the streets of the capital Monday to\u00a0register his candidacy for the Feb. 17\u00a0presidential race, he had reasons to be\u00a0relaxed. Six years into office, he has\u00a0record-high approval ratings, is facing a\u00a0splintered opposition and has a 33-point\u00a0lead over his nearest rival. To Correa and his supporters, the rosy\u00a0scenario is an endorsement of Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":4224,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[55],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4222"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4222"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4222\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4225,"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4222\/revisions\/4225"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.alvaronoboa.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}